Overview
- The IMF’s January update leaves Mexico’s 2026 growth projection unchanged at 1.5%, lowers 2025 to 0.6% from 1.0%, and nudges 2027 up to 2.1% from 2.0%.
- Global growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, with Latin America seen at 2.2% in 2026 and rebounding to 2.7% in 2027.
- The IMF highlights four downside risks: disappointing productivity from AI investments, escalating trade-policy frictions, geopolitical conflicts, and mounting public-debt vulnerabilities.
- The report notes Mexico’s performance is closely tied to the United States and sensitive to technology-driven investment cycles that could amplify external shocks.
- Policy guidance stresses rebuilding fiscal buffers, safeguarding price and financial stability, reducing uncertainty, and advancing structural reforms, alongside a gradual but uneven global disinflation path.