Overview
- The IMF’s updated World Economic Outlook keeps global GDP growth at 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027, noting that performance relies heavily on a few sectors and is vulnerable to shocks.
- WEF chief economists warn that concentrated gains in AI and tech have raised bubble risks; 74% expect a U.S. AI-stock drop would have global repercussions, and 59% think the impact would be short-lived.
- Official data show China grew about 5% in 2025, slowed to roughly 4.5% annualized in Q4, and posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus as exports to the United States fell around 20%.
- The IMF raises Spain’s outlook to 2.3% growth in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027 and maintains Argentina at 4% for both 2026 and 2027, highlighting divergent country trajectories.
- Mexico’s 2026 growth outlook remains weak, with estimates clustering between 1.1% and 1.5% as a Banxico survey cites 1.1%, the World Bank and UN project 1.3%, and the IMF is reported at 1.5%.