Overview

• Policy-level negotiations in Islamabad are working toward a revised macro-fiscal framework and a draft MEFP to secure a staff-level agreement under the $7 billion EFF and RSF.
• The IMF assesses a revenue gap of more than Rs400 billion requiring fiscal adjustments, while FBR officials say they are still striving to meet the Rs14.13 trillion tax target after a first-quarter shortfall.
• Pakistan has asked the IMF to cut its GDP growth projection from 4.2% to about 3.5%, and CPI inflation is seen around 7% to 8% for the year.
• Provincial Rapid Need Assessments now place flood losses above Rs650 billion, up from earlier estimates of Rs371 billion, but figures await validation by the World Bank, ADB, EU, and UNDP.
• Authorities intend to keep the Rs1 trillion PSDP envelope but slow early-year releases and have reallocated roughly Rs20 billion to FBR digitisation, with provincial surplus targets and policies such as Reko Diq, tariffs, and autos also under review.