Overview
- IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said hitting the year-end reserve goal will be challenging and called for stricter monetary and exchange-rate policies alongside broader reforms, with the next review set to decide how a US$20 billion U.S. Treasury swap is counted.
- Private gauges show net reserves remain negative and well below the relaxed year-end target of about US$3.3 billion, with one estimate from Consultora 1816 placing the shortfall near US$17 billion under IMF methodology.
- Vice Economy Minister José Luis Daza said the two-year stabilization plan is about to conclude and that formalizing reserve purchases will be clarified quickly, while officials argue roughly US$30 billion was bought but used to pay cash debt maturities.
- The central bank has not been purchasing dollars because the exchange-rate band leaves the official rate near its ceiling, which would trigger rule-based reserve sales if breached, reinforcing the priority placed on disinflation.
- A US$4.2 billion January payment heightens pressure to define reserve accounting and financing, with markets watching potential repo funding or possible activation of the U.S. Treasury swap.