Overview

• The Fund projects gross public debt to edge down from 71.6% of GDP to 71.3% this year, with a baseline path toward roughly 60.2% over five years.
• Government net debt is forecast to tick up from 65.3% of GDP in 2025 to 65.7% in 2026 even as gross debt trends lower.
• The fiscal deficit is seen at 4.1% of GDP this year versus a 3.9% target, with a gradual narrowing to about 2.8% over the medium term.
• Revenue is projected at about 16.2% of GDP and expenditure at roughly 20.4% this year, lifting the primary balance to 2.5% of GDP.
• IMF forecasts include GDP growth of 3.6% this year, consumer inflation near 6% in 2026, unemployment easing to 7.5%, and note external vulnerabilities such as non-resident holdings of about 28.6% of government debt.