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IMF Endorses Canada’s Budget Pivot, Urges Return to a Debt‑to‑GDP Anchor

The review says a formal debt ratio anchor would bolster fiscal credibility.

Overview

  • The IMF’s annual assessment praises the shift toward deficit‑financed public investment and a multi‑year expenditure review.
  • It recommends reinstating the debt‑to‑GDP ratio as a formal anchor alongside targets for a declining deficit path and a balanced operating budget by 2028–29.
  • The report urges an independent definition of capital and deeper regulatory and internal‑market reforms to lift private investment and productivity.
  • Canada’s finances are judged sustainable with relative fiscal headroom, though employment and business investment have weakened under trade and commodity pressures.
  • Ottawa highlights that debt‑to‑GDP is stable and the PBO and IMF view federal finances as sustainable, but it has not committed to adopting the debt‑anchor recommendation.