Overview

• The IMF has revised its 2025 global growth forecast to 2.8%, down from 3.3% in January, citing U.S. tariffs as a major factor.
• U.S. economic growth is now projected at 1.8% for 2025, a sharp decline from the 2.8% growth recorded in 2024, with nearly a 40% chance of recession.
• President Trump’s tariffs, the highest in over a century, have triggered global retaliatory measures, heightening economic uncertainty and market volatility.
• The White House is negotiating tariff exclusions with over 30 countries, while Trump intensifies public pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
• The IMF warns that the tariffs will slow progress on inflation control globally and reduce long-term productivity and economic output in the U.S.