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3h ago

IMF Cuts Russia’s 2025 Growth Outlook to 0.6% as It Lifts Global Forecast

Russian officials emphasize continuing growth, diverging from the IMF’s more cautious projections.

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Overview

  • The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook lowers Russia’s 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.6% and keeps 2026 at 1.0% after estimating 4.3% growth in 2024.
  • The fund links the downgrade to budget spending concentrated late in 2024 that boosted last year’s output and left a weaker carryover into 2025.
  • The IMF projects Russian inflation around 9% in 2025, easing to 5.2% in 2026.
  • Russia’s Economy Ministry had already trimmed its 2025 growth forecast to 1.0% and projects lower inflation than the IMF, at 6.8% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026.
  • Globally, the IMF nudges 2025 growth to 3.2% and sees core inflation falling to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, while warning trade tensions could shave about 0.3 percentage points from world GDP.