Overview

• The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 global growth forecast from 3.3% to 2.8%, marking a significant slowdown due to U.S. tariff policies.
• U.S. GDP growth is now expected to reach just 1.8% in 2025, with recession odds rising to 40%, according to the IMF's latest assessment.
• IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warns that tariff-driven uncertainty is disrupting investment, tightening credit, and acting as a global demand shock.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is engaging in bilateral negotiations with Japan and South Korea at the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings to address the tariff fallout.
• The IMF highlights risks to the global financial system, including reduced confidence in the U.S. dollar and Treasury assets, as volatility persists.