Overview
- The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook reduced Argentina’s 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1%, a large downward revision reported on Tuesday that reflects softer activity and slower recovery than earlier expected.
- The Fund also raised its 2026 inflation and unemployment estimates for Argentina, signaling that price pressures and labor market weakness will be larger and longer than previously projected.
- Argentina’s economic team led by Luis Caputo and Central Bank president Santiago Bausili is in Bangkok pursuing the third review of the $20 billion IMF facility, with a possible ~US$860 million disbursement contingent on approval.
- An IMF technical mission in Buenos Aires had urged materially larger reserve accumulation and the BCRA accelerated dollar purchases in early October after that advice, a move officials say is aimed at reducing run risk ahead of elections.
- Markets give mixed signals: Argentine dollar bonds staged a modest rebound and the country’s risk premium stood near 589 basis points, while higher sovereign yields in parts of Europe and rising global borrowing costs keep financing risks elevated.