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6h ago

IMF Cuts Argentina’s 2025–26 Outlook, Raises Inflation in October Review

Private data signal a technical recession that reinforces the downgrade.

AME3925. BUENOS AIRES (ARGENTINA), 18/07/2023.- Personas recorren un centro comercial hoy, en Buenos Aires (Argentina). Argentina difunde el estimador mensual de actividad económica de mayo de 2023, que en abril experimentó un retroceso del 1,9 % frente a marzo, y un 4,2 % en comparación con el mismo mes de 2022. EFE/Juan Ignacio Roncoroni
La directora gerenta del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Kristalina Georgieva, habla durante una conferencia de prensa en la sede del organismo en Washington
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Overview

  • In its October World Economic Outlook released in Washington, the IMF now projects Argentina’s GDP growth at 4.5% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, down from April’s 5.5% and 4.5%.
  • The Fund sees average inflation at 41.3% in 2025 with end‑year near 28%, and forecasts unemployment at 7.5% in 2025 easing to 6.6% in 2026.
  • The current account is expected to shift to a deficit of about 1.2% of GDP in 2025, narrowing to 0.4% in 2026.
  • Private consultancy Fundación Capital estimates GDP fell 0.8% q/q in Q3 after a 0.1% drop in Q2, implying a technical recession.
  • President Javier Milei and Economy Minister Luis Caputo blame legislative and political actions for raising risk and interest rates, while the IMF flags trade-policy uncertainty, fiscal and financial vulnerabilities, and erosion of institutional independence as key risks.