Overview
- The IMF's October World Economic Outlook lowered Argentina's 2026 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 3.5% and trimmed 2027 growth to 3.5%, a revision published this Tuesday.
- The fund raised its inflation projection to 32.5% for 2026 and 21.2% for 2027 and lifted the unemployment forecast to 7.6% in 2026 and 7.1% in 2027.
- The WEO expects Argentina's current‑account position to swing to a surplus of about 0.6% of GDP in both 2026 and 2027, driven by external flows and weaker domestic demand.
- Argentina's economic team led by Minister Luis Caputo is in Bangkok seeking IMF board approval of the program's third review that would unlock roughly US$869 million; IMF commentary stresses credible fiscal adjustment and time‑limited targeted support.
- The downgrade increases investor concern about near‑term activity and the chance of a technical recession, so markets will watch IMF approval, incoming domestic activity data and September inflation for signs of momentum or strain.