Overview
- India’s real GDP is projected by the IMF to grow 6.6% in FY26 and 6.2% in FY27, with GST reforms expected to cushion the impact of 50% US tariffs.
- The IMF’s latest consultation delays India’s $5 trillion nominal GDP target to FY29, citing slower nominal growth and rupee depreciation.
- The Finance Ministry’s October review reports retail inflation at a record low of 0.25% and notes GST rationalisation is lifting consumption indicators.
- Domestic forecasters have turned more upbeat, with ICICI estimating H1 FY26 growth at 7.6% and Q2 near 7.5%, and Union Bank projecting Q2 at 7.5%.
- CEA V. Anantha Nageswaran says India is set to cross $4 trillion in nominal GDP in FY26, while official Q2 FY26 data are due on November 28.