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AI-Fueled Rally Sets New Market Highs as IMF and Bank of England Warn on Valuations and Circular Deals

The split view turns on whether strong profits outweigh risks from concentration.

Overview

  • Stocks linked to artificial intelligence drove fresh records for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq this week as investors continued to buy into the AI theme despite recent volatility.
  • IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that equity prices are approaching late‑1990s levels and the Bank of England said a sharp correction risk has risen, with AI-focused valuations looking stretched.
  • Scrutiny intensified after a wave of interlocking agreements, including AMD’s multi‑year plan to supply up to six gigawatts of Instinct GPUs to OpenAI starting in 2026, Nvidia’s reported up‑to‑$100 billion commitment to OpenAI, and other reported vendor‑financing style arrangements.
  • Wall Street remains split, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America saying the surge reflects strong profits and cash‑flow funding rather than a classic bubble, while Morgan Stanley’s Lisa Shalett and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon warn of a potential correction within the next one to two years.
  • Market gains are highly concentrated, with seven mega‑caps accounting for 55% of the S&P 500’s advance since late 2022, increasing portfolio exposure if AI‑related expectations weaken.