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IMD Warns of Heavy Rains for South, Delta Tamil Nadu as Bay Low Lifts Cyclone Odds Later This Month

A northeast monsoon surge linked to a developing Bay circulation is driving the wet spell.

Overview

  • The weather office forecast light to moderate rain with isolated heavy spells across southern and delta districts through November 18, with yellow alerts issued in advance for Chennai on November 16–17.
  • RMC bulletins flag Thanjavur, Tiruvarur, Nagapattinam, Mayiladuthurai, Pudukottai, Ramanathapuram, Tirunelveli, Thoothukudi, Kanyakumari and Karaikal for heavier showers at one or two places.
  • Fishermen have been advised to avoid venturing into the sea due to the risk of rough conditions and gusty winds along coastal stretches.
  • International models from the US CPC and ECMWF indicate a 20–40% probability of a stronger system off the Tamil Nadu–Sri Lanka coast between roughly November 19–24, with IMD guidance hinting at a precursor low over the Andaman Sea around November 17.
  • Authorities warn of waterlogging and localized transport disruption from short, intense downpours, while Chennai sees partly cloudy skies with intermittent showers and temperatures near 32–33°C by day and 25–26°C at night.