Overview

• Conditions are becoming favourable for the retreat from parts of west Rajasthan around September 15, close to the revised normal of September 17 for that region.
• If withdrawal begins on September 15, it would be the earliest start since 2015, matching a September 15 onset in 2016, according to IMD-cited records.
• India has received about 836.2 mm of rain so far versus a normal 778.6 mm, a surplus of roughly 7–8%, with northwest up about 34–35%, central up ~11%, southern peninsula up ~6–7%, and east and northeast down ~20%.
• Heavy to very heavy rain is still forecast in the near term for parts of Odisha, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Maharashtra, and the Northeast, indicating ongoing monsoon activity outside the northwest.
• The season began unusually early, reaching Kerala on May 24 and covering the entire country by June 30, and IMD defines withdrawal using criteria such as five rain-free days, an upper-level anticyclone, and reduced moisture.