Overview
- The IMD’s January–March outlook projects above-normal rainfall over southern and central India but below-normal precipitation across northwest states such as Punjab and Haryana.
- For January specifically, the agency expects broadly normal rainfall nationwide, including the northwest, even as the three-month guidance points to a drier season there.
- A milder winter is forecast for the northwest with likely below-normal snowfall in higher reaches of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand after an exceptionally dry, foggy December.
- IMD notes La Niña conditions at present and expects a transition to ENSO-neutral by March, with neutral conditions likely to persist through June–July.
- The mixed rainfall pattern is not expected to significantly affect the rabi crop because reservoirs are well stocked and irrigation coverage is high in the northwest.