Overview
- The India Meteorological Department said on Monday that September rainfall for the country is most likely to be below 91% of the long‑period average of 167.9 mm and that monthly maximum and minimum temperatures will probably remain above normal.
- August recorded the highest mean temperature since 1901 at 28.01°C and ended about 16.3% below its normal rainfall, leaving the June–August seasonal total roughly 14% below normal.
- IMD analysis found four long‑lasting low‑pressure systems in August whose rain stayed concentrated over the Indo‑Gangetic plains, while nearly 47% of 741 assessed districts showed deficient or very deficient rainfall and some states in the south and east recorded large shortfalls.
- Experts and the IMD warn that weaker September rains would stress rain‑fed kharif crops during grain filling, raise farmers' irrigation costs, reduce reservoir and hydropower inflows, and add upward pressure to vegetable and edible‑oil prices.
- What to watch next: El Niño is expected to strengthen through the coming months, the Indian Ocean Dipole may shift state, the IMD will issue an October–December northeast monsoon outlook later in September, and some regions — parts of northwest, northeast, east and isolated southeast peninsular India — could still receive normal to above‑normal rain.