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3w ago

IMD Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon for 2025, Boosting Agricultural Prospects

The forecast anticipates 105% of the long-period average rainfall, driven by favorable climate conditions and improved forecasting accuracy.

Children play in the rain in Mumbai, India, June 20, 2024. REUTERS/ Hemanshi Kamani/File Photo
The forecast, with a ±5% error margin, is slightly more optimistic than Skymet Weather's 102% normal rainfall prediction made last week. (File)
As per this map, most areas in Maharashtra are marked in light blue, indicating above-normal rainfall. Marathwada, parts of southern Maharashtra, and Vidarbha are shown in dark blue, reflecting a high probability of excess rainfall during the monsoon.  (HT)
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Overview

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects 105% of the long-period average (87 cm) rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, with a ±5% error margin.
  • Favorable climate factors, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, as well as reduced Eurasian snow cover, support the strong monsoon outlook.
  • While most of India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, regions like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and the northeastern states may experience below-normal precipitation.
  • The monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, which sustains 42% of the population and contributes 18% to GDP, with implications for food inflation and rural demand.
  • Experts caution that uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall could lead to localized droughts or floods, despite the overall positive forecast.