Overview

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects 105% of the long-period average (87 cm) rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, with a ±5% error margin.
• Favorable climate factors, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, as well as reduced Eurasian snow cover, support the strong monsoon outlook.
• While most of India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, regions like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and the northeastern states may experience below-normal precipitation.
• The monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, which sustains 42% of the population and contributes 18% to GDP, with implications for food inflation and rural demand.
• Experts caution that uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall could lead to localized droughts or floods, despite the overall positive forecast.