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IMD Predicts Above-Normal Monsoon for 2025, Boosting Agricultural Prospects

The forecast anticipates 105% of the long-period average rainfall, driven by favorable climate conditions and improved forecasting accuracy.

Overview

  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD) projects 105% of the long-period average (87 cm) rainfall for the June-September monsoon season, with a ±5% error margin.
  • Favorable climate factors, including neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole conditions, as well as reduced Eurasian snow cover, support the strong monsoon outlook.
  • While most of India is expected to receive above-normal rainfall, regions like Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, and the northeastern states may experience below-normal precipitation.
  • The monsoon is critical for India's agriculture, which sustains 42% of the population and contributes 18% to GDP, with implications for food inflation and rural demand.
  • Experts caution that uneven temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall could lead to localized droughts or floods, despite the overall positive forecast.

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