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IMD Forecasts Colder January and Weak Northwest Rainfall Through March

The outlook points to extra cold-wave days in central and eastern India.

A man sits next to a dog near a fire along a road on a cold winter morning in New Delhi, India, December 30, 2025. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi

Overview

  • Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be below normal across most of India in January, according to the IMD.
  • Above-average cold-wave days are forecast for central and eastern belts, including Vidarbha, Marathwada, Madhya Pradesh, eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
  • Rainfall over northwest India is likely to be below normal for January to March, though January rainfall is projected to be near normal nationally.
  • Some parts of northwest and northeast India may see normal to above-normal January temperatures, offering limited relief from severe cold.
  • Cooler conditions could support rabi crop yields, with winter sowing at 61.4 million hectares, set against an exceptionally dry December and a longer-term warming trend that made 2025 the eighth warmest year.