Overview
- The India Meteorological Department on Friday forecast below‑normal rainfall for August and for the August–September period, each expected at under 94% of the long‑period average.
- The IMD cited a strengthening moderate El Niño over the equatorial Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions that are likely to turn positive in September as the main drivers of the weaker second half.
- July rains were near normal at the all‑India level and reduced the earlier deficit, but rainfall remained uneven across districts and kharif sowing still lags last year at about 78.7 million hectares.
- The IMD also projects normal to above‑normal night‑time temperatures for August, which can increase heat stress and reduce soil moisture in rain‑fed areas, raising crop failure risks for farmers.
- Economists and ratings agencies warn weaker August–September rains could push up food inflation, hurt farm incomes and curb rural demand even though large government paddy and wheat buffers may blunt immediate supply shocks.