Overview
- The India Meteorological Department issued the outlook on Friday, July 31, saying August rainfall will likely be under 94% of the 1971–2020 long‑period average and the August–September period will be about 94% of that average.
- The IMD says moderate El Niño conditions are present and likely to strengthen through the monsoon while the Indian Ocean Dipole is neutral now with some models pointing to a positive IOD in September that could partly offset deficits.
- District data for June–July show large spatial unevenness with 311 of 741 districts recording deficient rainfall and 49 reporting large deficiencies even though July’s nationwide total was roughly 1% above normal.
- Forecasters also expect monthly maximum temperatures to be above normal in many regions for August, increasing heat and soil‑moisture stress that can harm rain‑fed kharif crops and slow planting.
- Economists warn that localized rain shortfalls could cut yields, dent rural incomes and lift food inflation, and they point to lagging sowing area and heavy dependence on monsoon rains as factors to watch.