Overview
- The India Meteorological Department issued a July forecast on Tuesday saying monthly rainfall is likely to fall below 94% of the long‑period average, signaling a substantial shortfall in the peak monsoon month.
- June closed with about a 40% nationwide deficit and was the fifth driest June since 1901, a shortfall the IMD links mainly to missing low‑pressure systems, weak monsoon flow, and an inactive Madden–Julian Oscillation.
- The IMD expects above‑normal maximum and minimum temperatures across most of India in July, a pattern that will worsen heat stress and raise evaporation from soils and reservoirs.
- Forecasters say weak El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific are likely to strengthen during the monsoon while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral, leaving no oceanic boost to rainfall.
- The IMD has urged farmers and local planners to adopt water‑saving measures, shift to less water‑intensive crops, use district agro‑meteorological guidance, and warned a full seasonal reassessment will be issued at the end of July.