Overview

• The IMD outlook projects national rainfall at 106% of the 1971–2020 long-period average for the second half of the southwest monsoon, with August near normal and September above normal.
• The Block-Wise Rainfall Monitoring Scheme now collects real-time readings from 7,200 administrative blocks, boosting spatial resolution tenfold and informing crop insurance and disaster response.
• Forecasts indicate below-normal showers for much of northeast and adjoining eastern India, isolated central regions and parts of the southwest peninsula despite an overall surplus.
• ENSO-neutral conditions are expected through October, with a weak La Niña possibly developing after the monsoon, underpinning current forecast confidence.
• IMD has issued multi-tiered alerts and short-term forecasts for heavy rain, thunderstorms and waterlogging across states including Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Delhi-NCR, Mumbai and Uttar Pradesh.