Overview
- The India Meteorological Department announced the complete withdrawal on Thursday, October 15, 2026, and said northeast monsoon activity had begun over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Karaikal and adjoining southern areas.
- The IMD attributed the southern rains to an upper‑air cyclonic circulation over south coastal Tamil Nadu combined with easterly and northeasterly winds setting in across the peninsula.
- A western disturbance with two cyclonic circulations caused intense, short‑lived showers in northwest states including Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi, and private forecaster Skymet said those showers were expected to subside by Friday, October 16.
- India’s seasonal total was 759.4 mm of rainfall, roughly 13% below the long‑period average and among the lowest totals since 2001, a deficit officials and the WMO linked to a strengthening El Niño.
- The northeast monsoon, which runs through December, is vital for refilling reservoirs and supporting winter crops in Tamil Nadu and nearby districts, so the strength and duration of coming rains will directly affect water supplies and agriculture.