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IMD Closes Monsoon With 8% Surplus and Flags Bay of Bengal System Aiming for Odisha–North Andhra

October rainfall is forecast to be about 15% above normal with a wetter‑than‑usual October–December over south peninsular India.

Overview

  • Monsoon withdrawal has stalled due to active low‑pressure systems, the IMD said, with a Gulf of Kutch system and a Bay of Bengal disturbance sustaining rain.
  • IMD expects the Bay system to intensify into a depression and cross the south Odisha–north Andhra coast early on October 3, prompting coastal rain, wind and sea‑condition alerts.
  • Odisha authorities have told district collectors to mobilise men and machinery, and Kolkata’s civic body has deployed pumps and task forces to manage potential waterlogging.
  • Seasonal totals show sharp contrasts: northwest India was at 127% of its long‑period average, the highest since 2001, while east and northeast India logged the second‑lowest since 1901 at 80% of normal.
  • IMD reported at least 1,528 deaths during the season and projects above‑normal October rainfall nationally and an above‑normal October–December for the south peninsula, with La Niña probabilities increasing.