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22h ago

ILO Cuts 2025 Global Job Forecast by Seven Million Over US Trade War

The downgrade follows the IMF’s revised growth forecast, spotlighting risks to jobs tied to U.S. consumption.

A container ship is pictured being unloaded at the Port of Oakland in May 2025 in Oakland, California.
A view of an illustration outside a wood flooring sales office next to an employment agency in Toronto, Ontario, Canada October 8, 2021. REUTERS/Chris Helgren/File Photo
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Overview

  • The ILO’s World Employment and Social Outlook Trends report now projects 53 million new jobs in 2025, down from 60 million predicted earlier.
  • The forecast reduction reflects the IMF’s April outlook showing global GDP growth slowing to 2.8% from an earlier estimate of 3.2%.
  • Approximately 84 million roles across 71 countries rely directly or indirectly on U.S. consumer demand and face heightened exposure to trade disruption.
  • The Asia-Pacific region accounts for 56 million of the at-risk positions, while Canada and Mexico each have 17.1% of jobs vulnerable to tariff measures.
  • ILO Director-General Gilbert Houngbo recommends strengthening social protection, investing in skills development and promoting inclusive labour markets to mitigate fallout.