Overview
- New ACIC and AIC assessments put the 2023–24 illicit tobacco toll at $4 billion, including $3.3 billion in avoided excise, and the ATO estimates illegal sales at roughly one in five.
- Authorities link organised syndicates to more than 200 firebombings and at least three homicides since 2023, citing pervasive extortion and intimidation tied to the trade.
- Serious and organised crime is costed at $82.3 billion in 2023–24, with illicit tobacco identified as a rapidly expanding market second only to illicit drugs.
- The federal government has created a national tobacco disruption task force and NSW Health has begun closures and seizures, including 3,860 illicit cigarettes and 224 illegal vapes in Sydney.
- Excise policy faces renewed pressure as legal packs sell for about $40–$50 versus $13 on the black market, retailers report sharp sales declines, and Treasury forecasts excise revenue falling to $7.1 billion next year.