Overview
- IIF projects GDP growth of 0.3% for 2025 and 0.9% for 2026, citing headwinds from tariffs, potential USMCA renegotiation, institutional fragility, slowing remittances, limited fiscal space and infrastructure gaps.
- The federal economic framework underpinning the 2026 budget assumes 1% growth for 2025 and 2.3% for 2026, with the approved revenue law targeting 10.194 trillion pesos in total revenues, 85.6% from budgetary sources.
- Banco de México has cut its 2025 growth forecast to 0.3% in its latest report after earlier projections were revised down through the year.
- Private-sector outlooks for 2026 remain subdued, with Banco Base and Banca Mifel at 0.8% and BNP Paribas at 0.9%, broadly in line with the IIF’s view.
- Financing plans lean on higher domestic borrowing in 2026, with 1.858 trillion pesos projected, underscoring fiscal constraints if growth and tax receipts underperform.