Overview

• Combined annual spending on Education, Health and Care Plans and child disability living allowance is estimated at £16 billion now and is forecast to rise to £21 billion by 2029.
• High-needs spending in schools alone is projected to top £15 billion by 2029, which the IFS says would exceed the Ministry of Justice’s day-to-day budget.
• Councils’ SEND deficits are forecast to swell to around £8 billion by 2028, with pressures mounting as the statutory override that keeps these deficits off balance sheets approaches its end.
• The share of under-16s with an EHCP has nearly doubled to 5.2% over a decade and CDLA recipients have risen to 7.2%, driven largely by autism and ADHD diagnoses, including autism-linked EHCPs rising from 54,000 in 2015 to 149,000 in 2025.
• IFS analysis shows poor early-adult outcomes for those receiving both forms of support at 15, while ministers say reforms are coming with £740 million for 10,000 specialist places and a pledge to maintain legal rights to support.