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IFS Report Finds NHS Delays Account for Minimal Rise in UK Disability Benefit Claims

The Institute for Fiscal Studies estimates NHS waiting times explain only 7–8% of the 40% surge in health-related benefit claims since 2019, urging alternative policy focus.

A view of NHS ambulances parked along a street, following the announcement of the re-balloting voted in the long-running dispute over pay and staffing,  in London, Britain, February 18, 2023. REUTERS/May James
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The findings challenge Labour’s argument that improving the NHS will make a significant difference to a surge in benefits claims

Overview

  • The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) concluded that NHS waiting lists have played a minor role in the sharp rise in health-related benefit claims among working-age adults in England.
  • Between 2019 and 2024, claims for disability and incapacity benefits increased by 40–41%, while NHS waiting lists grew by 67%, but regional data shows no strong correlation.
  • Mental health conditions now account for 44% of disability claims, up from 25% in 2002, with researchers pointing to broader ill-health and access issues beyond NHS delays.
  • Annual spending on disability and long-term sickness benefits for working-age individuals is £41 billion, set to more than double by 2029 without intervention.
  • The UK Government is advancing welfare reforms and a 10-year health strategy focused on prevention and reintegrating claimants into the workforce to address rising costs.