IFS Report Casts Doubt on NHS 18-Week Waiting Time Target by 2029

Achieving the NHS goal would require unprecedented productivity growth and systemic changes, with significant trade-offs for patient care.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) deems it unlikely that the NHS will meet the 18-week waiting time target by 2029 without major systemic changes and productivity increases.
The NHS backlog remains substantial, with 6.25 million patients awaiting treatment as of January 2025, despite recent reductions in the longest waits.
Meeting the target would require annual treatment volume growth of 4.9%, double the average rate of the 2010s, according to IFS analysis.
Strategies such as reducing demand, prioritizing long waits, and expanding community care are being implemented but could negatively impact certain patient groups.
The Government’s Elective Reform Plan includes measures like surgical hubs, community diagnostic centres, and GP involvement, but skepticism persists about their adequacy to achieve the goal.