Overview

• The Institute for Fiscal Studies projects combined spending on education, health and care plans and child disability living allowance to reach about £21 billion by 2029, up from around £16 billion now.
• High-needs spending in schools is forecast to exceed £15 billion by 2029, which the IFS says would surpass the Ministry of Justice’s day-to-day budget, with CDLA costs rising toward £6 billion.
• EHCP prevalence has nearly doubled in a decade to 5.2% of under‑16s in England, while 7.2% of children receive CDLA, up from 3.4%.
• IFS analysis highlights weak adult outcomes for supported children, noting that of those receiving both EHCP and CDLA at 15 in 2014, half were not in education, employment or training by 22 and three quarters were on adult disability benefits.
• Ministers plan to set out SEND reforms in a Schools White Paper later this year, with unions and councils calling for early identification and sufficient funding and the government stressing legal rights to support and investment in additional specialist places.