Overview
- Germany’s revised official projection, updated with 2022 census data, now anticipates a roughly 10% population decline by 2070 versus 2021 after earlier models showed about 1%.
- Ifo attributes the downgrade mainly to lower expected births through the late 2030s and reduced net migration assumptions in the new forecast.
- The institute projects stark regional gaps, with eastern non-city states down about 22%, western counterparts down about 9%, and city-states seeing slight growth by 2070.
- Ifo warns that a smaller, older population will deepen labor shortages, intensify pressure on the pension system, and increase demand for health and long-term care capacity.
- Ifo also notes likely lower needs for housing, some transport infrastructure, and public-sector staffing, and points to a revised base population of 81.9 million versus an earlier estimate of 83.2 million.