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Ifo Study Finds German Trade Hinges on Red Sea and Other Maritime Chokepoints

Officials urge integrating merchant shipping into security planning to prepare for possible chokepoint blockades.

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Die deutsche Wirtschaft ist einer Studie zufolge besonders abhängig vom Seeweg über das Rote Meer. Knapp zehn Prozent aller Importe nach Deutschland werden über den Suezkanal und die Straße von Bab al-Mandab transportiert.

Overview

  • Nearly 10% of German imports in 2023 moved via the Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab, carrying critical raw materials and industrial inputs.
  • The study attributes roughly 8.7–8.9% of imports to the Malacca Strait and about 7.1–7.2% to the Taiwan Strait, while the Panama Canal and the Strait of Hormuz accounted for 0.5% and 0.4%.
  • Product-level exposure is extreme for some goods, with 97.2% of raw mica imports requiring passage through Suez.
  • These sea routes became more important for imports between 2019 and 2023 even as their significance for exports declined.
  • German shipping lines are detouring around the Red Sea because of Huthi attacks, and the VDR and the federal maritime coordinator called for tighter security integration and corporate contingency planning.