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Ifo Map Shows Where US Tariffs Hit Germany Hardest

The study models modest regional shifts in value added that concentrate losses in industry hubs, with service centers posting small gains.

Overview

  • Salzgitter is identified as the most affected locality nationwide, with an estimated 1.16% drop in gross value added.
  • Auto and metal centers face the steepest declines, including Dingolfing‑Landau (−1.08%), Wolfsburg (−1.06%), Böblingen (−1.05%) and Ingolstadt (−0.98%).
  • A smaller set of places sees slight gains, led by Potsdam (+0.23%), Main‑Taunus‑Kreis (+0.22%), Cottbus (+0.18%) and Bonn (+0.17%).
  • The Ifo analysis points to a northeast‑to‑southwest gradient, with parts of Schleswig‑Holstein, Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and Brandenburg comparatively less harmed.
  • Negative effects dominate across Germany, with 339 local results in the red versus 61 in positive territory, and major cities split between small gains for Hamburg (+0.13%) and Berlin (+0.08%) and declines for Cologne (−0.09%) and Munich (−0.18%).