Overview

• The IFI’s September report forecasts an effective primary deficit of R$103 billion in 2026 and a post‑discount shortfall of R$45 billion, outside the fiscal framework’s tolerance band.
• Reaching the PLOA’s center target of a 0.25%‑of‑GDP surplus would require an extra R$79.3 billion, while R$45 billion would be needed just to hit the zero floor.
• The IFI flags R$60.7 billion in budgeted revenues as uncertain, with R$40.7 billion dependent on congressional approval and R$20 billion tied to tax transactions.
• Its baseline assumes GDP growth of 1.7% and inflation of 4.3% in 2026, versus the government’s 2.4% growth and 3.6% inflation, weakening the case for the official revenue path and raising expense pressures.
• Beyond 2026, the IFI estimates a primary surplus near 2.1% of GDP is needed to stabilize debt, as director Marcus Pestana describes a slow, progressive fiscal deterioration and erosion of the policy anchor.