Overview
- Under the reinstated Current Policies Scenario, global oil demand reaches about 113 million barrels per day by 2050, with CO2 emissions in 2050 roughly unchanged from today.
- In the Stated Policies Scenario, oil and coal peak around 2030 as renewables lead growth, but emissions fall only modestly by 2050, leaving a trajectory closer to 2.5°C.
- The IEA says all scenarios overshoot 1.5°C, noting that only a net‑zero pathway with significant carbon removal brings temperatures back down later in the century.
- The report highlights a major LNG buildout, with roughly 300 bcm of new annual export capacity starting by 2030, a 50% increase that supports higher gas supply.
- Rising electricity demand from data centres and AI features prominently, with 2025 data‑centre investment estimated at $580 billion, exceeding annual spending on new oil supply, as the Global Carbon Project reports record 2025 CO2 emissions during COP30.