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IEA World Energy Outlook 2025 Finds Renewables Leading Every Scenario, With Oil Demand Peaking Near 2030

The report says the 1.5°C goal remains achievable without new oil or gas projects.

Overview

  • Solar-led renewables grow faster than any other major energy source in all modeled pathways, according to the IEA.
  • Even with modeled U.S. policy reversals cutting 2035 U.S. renewable capacity by more than 30% versus last year’s outlook, global deployment continues to surge.
  • The IEA reinstates a Current Policies Scenario after reported U.S. pressure, and even this status‑quo case shows renewables outpacing other sources.
  • In key scenarios, global oil demand peaks around 2030 and trends down toward roughly 100 million barrels per day by 2035.
  • Investment tilts toward electricity systems in 2025, with about $580 billion directed to power and storage, surpassing estimated global oil spending.