Overview
- The IEA’s November report cites mounting operational strains, including Lukoil’s force majeure at Iraq’s West Qurna‑2 after Iraqi authorities froze funds and transfers.
- The agency highlights Bulgaria’s move to nationalize Lukoil’s Burgas refinery and potential knock‑on effects for Romania’s Petrotel, risking tighter fuel supplies in Eastern Europe.
- Despite emerging disruptions, the IEA keeps Russia’s crude output forecast at about 9.3 million barrels per day but flags a significant downside risk pending enforcement details and workarounds.
- The U.S. EIA expects Russia’s oil production to edge down by roughly 0.1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2026, with deeper losses possible if buyers cut purchases more sharply.
- The EIA assesses that sanctions chiefly raise transportation costs and risks, depressing realized prices for Russian producers, while Russia asserts resilience and the U.S. Treasury’s October action added Rosneft, Lukoil and 34 subsidiaries to the sanctions list.