Overview

• OPEC+ lifted output by 630,000 barrels per day in September to about 43.05 million bpd, with Russia up 148,000 bpd to 9.321 million bpd, according to OPEC’s monthly report.
• OPEC kept its relatively high demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 unchanged and indicated the 2026 deficit would shrink if the group maintains September production levels.
• The IEA trimmed demand growth to roughly 700,000 bpd for both 2025 and 2026, raised supply growth estimates, and projected a potential surplus near 4 million bpd next year, citing rising stocks including a surge in oil on water.
• WTI backwardation narrowed to a 20‑month low, with the front‑to‑seventh month spread at 47 cents, while Brent and WTI traded near five‑month lows as the curve edged toward contango.
• Oil executives from TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Saudi Aramco and ConocoPhillips said medium‑term tightness is likely as $60 oil threatens to slow U.S. shale growth and accelerate decline rates, even as near‑term balances look loose.