Overview

• Drawing on data from roughly 15,000 fields, the IEA reports accelerated decline rates and notes that as of 2024 about 80% of global oil and 90% of gas came from fields already past peak.
• Without continued investment, oil supply would fall by about 5.5 million barrels per day each year and gas by around 270 billion cubic metres, with nearly 90% of upstream spending currently used to offset declines; 2025 upstream investment is pegged near $570 billion.
• Average post‑peak declines are 5.6% for conventional oil and 6.8% for conventional gas, with smaller offshore fields in Europe averaging more than 15% per year and tight oil and shale gas dropping over 35% in the first year without reinvestment.
• The IEA estimates that keeping production at today’s levels through 2050 would require more than 45 million barrels per day of new oil and nearly 2,000 bcm of new conventional gas, even after accounting for projects already approved or under development.
• The report warns of heightened energy‑security risks from greater supply concentration in the Middle East and Russia, draws criticism from OPEC and renews a feud with the Trump administration, while also reiterating that no new long lead‑time projects would be needed if demand fell on a 1.5C pathway.