Overview
- IEA’s December report now projects up to about 3.84 million barrels per day of oversupply in 2026, cutting roughly 230,000 bpd from last month’s estimate after a halt to the recent supply surge.
- Global output slipped by about 610,000 bpd in November from October, with unplanned outages in Kuwait and Kazakhstan and tighter sanctions curbing flows from Russia and Venezuela, including an estimated 400,000 bpd drop in Russian exports.
- OPEC’s monthly report kept its 2026 demand growth view near 1.4 million bpd and signals a near balance, contrasting with the IEA’s larger surplus outlook.
- OPEC+ will pause its targeted monthly production hikes during the first quarter of 2026, reinforcing efforts to stabilize the balance as new non-OPEC+ barrels from Latin America and other projects come online.
- The IEA flagged a disconnect between record oil on the water and only marginal stock builds at key hubs, while prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday with Brent near $61 and WTI near $57 despite supportive U.S. inventory draws.