Overview

• The International Energy Agency raised its 2025 supply growth forecast by 300,000 bpd to 2.1 million, while cutting demand growth to 700,000 bpd—the slowest annual increase since 2009 excluding the pandemic.
• Steep backwardation, healthy refining margins and ramped-up summer refinery runs signal a tighter physical oil market through August despite an expected surplus.
• Saudi Arabia pumped roughly 9.8 million bpd in June, about 700,000 bpd above its OPEC+ quota, as other Gulf producers also exceeded their limits amid regional tensions.
• The IEA projects world oil inventories will build by around 2 million bpd in the fourth quarter and 3 million bpd in early 2026 as supply outstrips consumption.
• OPEC’s World Oil Outlook 2050 forecasts demand rising to 123 million bpd by mid-century, a projection that diverges sharply from IEA and other forecasters who anticipate peak demand before 2030.