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IEA Sees No Peak in Oil and Gas by 2050, Higher OPEC+ Output and Revenues

OPEC welcomes the shift, keeping its 2025–2026 demand growth outlook unchanged.

Overview

  • In its Current Policies Scenario, the IEA says global oil and gas demand does not peak before 2050.
  • OPEC+ oil supply is projected to climb from about 50 million b/d in 2024 to 63 million b/d in 2050, with real oil revenues rising from $1.4 trillion to $2.5 trillion.
  • The IEA expects Russia’s pipeline deliveries to China to double to roughly 80 bcm in 2035, with Power of Siberia at capacity and Power of Siberia‑2 ramping in the mid‑2030s.
  • Russia’s total gas exports are seen holding near 160 bcm a year to 2035, including about 50 bcm a year of LNG.
  • OPEC reports Russia lifted October oil output by 47,000 b/d to 9.382 million b/d yet stayed 99,000 b/d below its plan, while OPEC keeps demand growth at +1.3 million b/d in 2025 and +1.4 million b/d in 2026.