Overview

• The IEA raised its 2026 surplus estimate to about 4 million bpd from roughly 3.3 million bpd in its prior outlook.
• It now expects global supply to increase by about 3 million bpd in 2025 and a further 2.4 million bpd in 2026, while cutting this year’s demand growth forecast to roughly 710,000 bpd.
• OPEC+ plans to lift output by 137,000 bpd from November, and the IEA says additional growth will come from the U.S., Canada, Brazil and Guyana.
• Global seaborne oil shipments rose by 102 million barrels in September, the largest monthly increase since the start of COVID-19, driven in part by faster Middle East production.
• Oil prices edged higher on Oct. 14 on early signs of easing U.S.–China tensions, as China’s new tax on U.S.-owned vessels triggered last‑minute cancellations and higher freight rates, with U.S. officials indicating President Trump still intends to meet President Xi this month.