Overview
- The International Energy Agency on Friday forecast global oil demand will fall by about 1 million barrels per day in 2026, the first annual decline since 2020.
- War-related disruptions and the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed roughly 1.5 billion barrels from global stocks this year, triggering the IEA‑coordinated 400 million‑barrel release and a US SPR draw of about 172 million barrels.
- Shipments through the Strait partly recovered in June, lifting Gulf crude flows, but renewed US‑Iran strikes in early July have slowed transit again and revived a geopolitical risk premium that keeps markets volatile.
- Governments plan multi‑year repurchases to rebuild reserves through 2028 that analysts say will add material crude demand, and the US expects to receive about 1.28 barrels back for every barrel returned under exchange agreements.
- Refined‑product markets remain tight with record diesel and gasoline refining margins and the IEA has cut Russia production forecasts after repeated Ukrainian strikes on refineries, a mix that sustains price swings and supply pressure.