Overview

• Drawing on data from about 15,000 fields, the IEA reports average post-peak declines of 5.6% for oil and 6.8% for natural gas.
• As of 2024, roughly 80% of oil and 90% of gas production came from fields that are past peak output, heightening reliance on reinvestment.
• Nearly 90% of upstream capital is already used to offset declines at existing fields rather than to serve growth in demand, according to the agency.
• To maintain today’s production levels by 2050, the report indicates more than 45 million barrels per day of new conventional oil and about 2,000 bcm of new conventional gas would be required.
• The analysis links sharper declines to greater dependence on shale and smaller offshore fields and warns of energy-security risks if supply concentrates more heavily in the Middle East and Russia.