Overview
- The World Energy Outlook reintroduces a Current Policies Scenario projecting oil demand near 113 million barrels per day by 2050 and continued gas growth, with warming exceeding 2°C by around mid‑century and reaching roughly 2.9°C by 2100.
- In the Stated Policies Scenario, renewables expand fastest and oil and coal are expected to peak around 2030 before declining, though the IEA trims some growth assumptions after U.S. policy shifts.
- Electricity use accelerates sharply due to data centers, AI and cooling needs, with 2025 data‑center investment estimated at about $580 billion, surpassing annual spending on new oil supply.
- The IEA highlights a major liquefied natural gas build‑out, with about 300 billion cubic metres of new annual export capacity starting by 2030, a 50% increase in global supply.
- Separately, the Global Carbon Budget reports fossil CO2 hitting a record 38.1 gigatonnes in 2025 and estimates a remaining 1.5°C budget of roughly 170 gigatonnes, prompting fresh criticism of the CPS and reminders that IEA scenarios are tools, not forecasts.