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IEA Revises Global Oil Demand and Supply Forecasts for 2025

Economic challenges and EV growth slow oil demand, while Saudi-led supply increases drive stock builds.

A worker holds a nozzle to pump fuel into a two-wheeler vehicle at a Bharat Petroleum oil and fuel station in Kolkata, India, August 7, 2024. REUTERS/Sahiba Chawdhary/File Photo
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Overview

  • The IEA projects global oil demand growth to average 740,000 barrels per day in 2025, with a slowdown to 650,000 bpd expected for the remainder of the year.
  • Record electric vehicle sales and economic uncertainties are key factors behind the reduced demand growth forecast.
  • Global oil supply is anticipated to grow by 1.6 million bpd in 2025, driven predominantly by Saudi Arabia's increased output.
  • Oil inventories are forecast to rise significantly, averaging builds of 720,000 bpd in 2025, reversing last year’s stock declines.
  • OPEC+ has approved a second consecutive monthly production increase for June, while U.S. shale output projections have been reduced due to lower prices.